Group D — WC 2026

Group D

USA 3.0 ★ ↑

Elo rating: 1850
Confederation: CONCACAF
Advance from group: Qualified ✓
Reach Round of 16: >99.9%
Reach Quarter-final: <0.1%
Reach Semi-final: <0.1%
Reach Final: <0.1%
🏆 Win tournament: <0.1%

Paraguay 2.5 ★ ↑

Elo rating: 1780
Confederation: CONMEBOL
Advance from group: Out ✗
Reach Round of 16: >99.9%
Reach Quarter-final: <0.1%
Reach Semi-final: <0.1%
Reach Final: <0.1%
🏆 Win tournament: <0.1%

Australia 2.6 ★ →

Elo rating: 1790
Confederation: AFC
Advance from group: Qualified ✓
Reach Round of 16: <0.1%
Reach Quarter-final: <0.1%
Reach Semi-final: <0.1%
Reach Final: <0.1%
🏆 Win tournament: <0.1%

Turkey 3.0 ★ ↓

Elo rating: 1840
Confederation: UEFA
Advance from group: <0.1%
Reach Round of 16: <0.1%
Reach Quarter-final: <0.1%
Reach Semi-final: <0.1%
Reach Final: <0.1%
🏆 Win tournament: <0.1%

Group matches (simulated probabilities)

USA vs Paraguay

Elo: 1850 vs 1780 (diff: +70)

USA vs Australia

Elo: 1850 vs 1790 (diff: +60)

USA vs Turkey

Elo: 1850 vs 1840 (diff: +10)

Paraguay vs Australia

Elo: 1780 vs 1790 (diff: -10)

Paraguay vs Turkey

Elo: 1780 vs 1840 (diff: -60)

Australia vs Turkey

Elo: 1790 vs 1840 (diff: -50)