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The Draw

The 48 teams are split into 4 pots of 12. One team from each pot is drawn into each of the 12 groups (A-L). Hosts (Mexico, Canada, USA) are pre-seeded into A1/B1/D1. Spain/Argentina and France/England are placed in opposite halves of the bracket (A-F vs G-L). No group may have more than one team per confederation, except UEFA (which may have up to two).

Pots

Pot 1
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina
  • ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
  • ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England
  • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
  • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
Pot 2
  • ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
Pot 3
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway
  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria
  • ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland
  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay
  • ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan
  • ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa
Pot 4
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ Curacao
  • ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand
  • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden
  • ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq

Actual draw (current scenario)

Group A
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฝ Mexico
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฟ๐Ÿ‡ฆ South Africa
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ท South Korea
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Czech Republic
Group B
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canada
  • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ฆ Bosnia and Herzegovina
  • ๐Ÿ‡ถ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Qatar
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland
Group C
  • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco
  • ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡น Haiti
  • ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟ Scotland
Group D
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ USA
  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡พ Paraguay
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡บ Australia
  • ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ท Turkey
Group E
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ผ Curacao
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฎ Ivory Coast
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡จ Ecuador
Group F
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ช Sweden
  • ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿ‡ณ Tunisia
Group G
  • ๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ฌ Egypt
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท Iran
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฟ New Zealand
Group H
  • ๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ป Cape Verde
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Saudi Arabia
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay
Group I
  • ๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France
  • ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ณ Senegal
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ถ Iraq
  • ๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ด Norway
Group J
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Algeria
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡น Austria
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ด Jordan
Group K
  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฉ DR Congo
  • ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ฟ Uzbekistan
  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia
Group L
  • ๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England
  • ๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญ Ghana
  • ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ฆ Panama

Actual draw vs. "pre-draw" (average over possible draws)

The "pre-draw" scenario averages tournament-winner probability over many randomly simulated draws (following the same procedure as the real draw). Comparing it to the actual draw shows how much the real draw helped or hurt each team.

Team Winner prob (actual draw) Winner prob (avg. draw) Difference
๐Ÿ‡ช๐Ÿ‡ธ Spain 11.28% 11.62% -0.34%
๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ท Argentina 10.63% 10.67% -0.04%
๐Ÿ‡ซ๐Ÿ‡ท France 9.28% 9.18% +0.10%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ท Brazil 6.88% 6.80% +0.08%
๐Ÿด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ฅ๓ ฎ๓ ง๓ ฟ England 6.38% 6.35% +0.03%
๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡น Portugal 5.97% 5.91% +0.06%
๐Ÿ‡ณ๐Ÿ‡ฑ Netherlands 5.11% 5.29% -0.18%
๐Ÿ‡ง๐Ÿ‡ช Belgium 4.58% 4.29% +0.29%
๐Ÿ‡ฉ๐Ÿ‡ช Germany 4.37% 4.50% -0.13%
๐Ÿ‡ญ๐Ÿ‡ท Croatia 3.18% 3.18% +0.00%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ด Colombia 2.85% 2.94% -0.09%
๐Ÿ‡ฒ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Morocco 2.68% 2.61% +0.07%
๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡พ Uruguay 2.31% 2.37% -0.06%
๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ญ Switzerland 2.17% 1.97% +0.20%
๐Ÿ‡ฏ๐Ÿ‡ต Japan 1.77% 1.91% -0.14%

Full scenario comparison: actual draw (pre-match) vs. pre-draw