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Group I

France
Elo rating
2060
Confederation
UEFA
Advance from group
90.4%
Reach Round of 16
61.3%
Reach Quarter-final
39.2%
Reach Semi-final
25.2%
Reach Final
15.2%
Win tournament
9.2%
Senegal
Elo rating
1860
Confederation
CAF
Advance from group
68.2%
Reach Round of 16
35.0%
Reach Quarter-final
16.8%
Reach Semi-final
7.9%
Reach Final
3.5%
Win tournament
1.5%
Iraq
Elo rating
1700
Confederation
AFC
Advance from group
40.5%
Reach Round of 16
15.3%
Reach Quarter-final
5.5%
Reach Semi-final
1.8%
Reach Final
0.6%
Win tournament
0.2%
Norway
Elo rating
1850
Confederation
UEFA
Advance from group
66.4%
Reach Round of 16
33.6%
Reach Quarter-final
15.9%
Reach Semi-final
7.4%
Reach Final
3.2%
Win tournament
1.3%

Group matches (simulated probabilities)

France vs Senegal
Elo: 2060 vs 1860 (diff: +200)
France vs Iraq
Elo: 2060 vs 1700 (diff: +360)
France vs Norway
Elo: 2060 vs 1850 (diff: +210)
Senegal vs Iraq
Elo: 1860 vs 1700 (diff: +160)
Senegal vs Norway
Elo: 1860 vs 1850 (diff: +10)
Iraq vs Norway
Elo: 1700 vs 1850 (diff: -150)