Group H — WC 2026

Group H

Spain

Elo rating: 2090
Confederation: UEFA
Advance from group: 94.1%
Reach Round of 16: 62.2%
Reach Quarter-final: 41.8%
Reach Semi-final: 28.5%
Reach Final: 18.2%
Win tournament: 11.3%

Cape Verde

Elo rating: 1680
Confederation: CAF
Advance from group: 42.4%
Reach Round of 16: 13.8%
Reach Quarter-final: 4.8%
Reach Semi-final: 1.6%
Reach Final: 0.5%
Win tournament: 0.1%

Saudi Arabia

Elo rating: 1700
Confederation: AFC
Advance from group: 46.4%
Reach Round of 16: 15.9%
Reach Quarter-final: 5.8%
Reach Semi-final: 1.9%
Reach Final: 0.6%
Win tournament: 0.2%

Uruguay

Elo rating: 1900
Confederation: CONMEBOL
Advance from group: 78.3%
Reach Round of 16: 38.6%
Reach Quarter-final: 20.6%
Reach Semi-final: 10.6%
Reach Final: 5.1%
Win tournament: 2.3%

Group matches (simulated probabilities)

Spain vs Cape Verde

Elo: 2090 vs 1680 (diff: +410)

Spain vs Saudi Arabia

Elo: 2090 vs 1700 (diff: +390)

Spain vs Uruguay

Elo: 2090 vs 1900 (diff: +190)

Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia

Elo: 1680 vs 1700 (diff: -20)

Cape Verde vs Uruguay

Elo: 1680 vs 1900 (diff: -220)

Saudi Arabia vs Uruguay

Elo: 1700 vs 1900 (diff: -200)