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Group D

USA +18
Elo rating
1850
Confederation
CONCACAF
Advance from group
97.1%
Reach Round of 16
51.7%
Reach Quarter-final
24.3%
Reach Semi-final
10.5%
Reach Final
4.7%
Win tournament
1.9%
Paraguay -18
Elo rating
1780
Confederation
CONMEBOL
Advance from group
34.9%
Reach Round of 16
15.2%
Reach Quarter-final
5.8%
Reach Semi-final
2.4%
Reach Final
0.9%
Win tournament
0.3%
Australia +22
Elo rating
1790
Confederation
AFC
Advance from group
93.4%
Reach Round of 16
45.1%
Reach Quarter-final
18.4%
Reach Semi-final
7.3%
Reach Final
2.9%
Win tournament
1.1%
Turkey -22
Elo rating
1840
Confederation
UEFA
Advance from group
45.2%
Reach Round of 16
21.6%
Reach Quarter-final
9.2%
Reach Semi-final
4.3%
Reach Final
1.8%
Win tournament
0.7%

Group matches (simulated probabilities)

USA vs Paraguay
Elo: 1850 vs 1780 (diff: +70)
USA vs Australia
Elo: 1850 vs 1790 (diff: +60)
USA vs Turkey
Elo: 1850 vs 1840 (diff: +10)
Paraguay vs Australia
Elo: 1780 vs 1790 (diff: -10)
Paraguay vs Turkey
Elo: 1780 vs 1840 (diff: -60)
Australia vs Turkey
Elo: 1790 vs 1840 (diff: -50)