Group A — WC 2026

Group A

Mexico +17

Elo rating: 1820
Confederation: CONCACAF
Advance from group: 94.3%
Reach Round of 16: 48.1%
Reach Quarter-final: 21.2%
Reach Semi-final: 8.7%
Reach Final: 3.5%
Win tournament: 1.4%

South Africa -17

Elo rating: 1720
Confederation: CAF
Advance from group: 32.7%
Reach Round of 16: 13.5%
Reach Quarter-final: 5.1%
Reach Semi-final: 1.7%
Reach Final: 0.6%
Win tournament: 0.2%

South Korea +18

Elo rating: 1840
Confederation: AFC
Advance from group: 93.8%
Reach Round of 16: 49.6%
Reach Quarter-final: 22.4%
Reach Semi-final: 9.4%
Reach Final: 4.1%
Win tournament: 1.7%

Czech Republic -18

Elo rating: 1780
Confederation: UEFA
Advance from group: 50.7%
Reach Round of 16: 23.6%
Reach Quarter-final: 10.1%
Reach Semi-final: 3.7%
Reach Final: 1.5%
Win tournament: 0.5%

Group matches (simulated probabilities)

Mexico vs South Africa

Elo: 1820 vs 1720 (diff: +100)

Mexico vs South Korea

Elo: 1820 vs 1840 (diff: -20)

Mexico vs Czech Republic

Elo: 1820 vs 1780 (diff: +40)

South Africa vs South Korea

Elo: 1720 vs 1840 (diff: -120)

South Africa vs Czech Republic

Elo: 1720 vs 1780 (diff: -60)

South Korea vs Czech Republic

Elo: 1840 vs 1780 (diff: +60)